VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – It’s neck-and-neck-and-neck. After two weeks of campaigning for the federal election, there is a virtual three-way tie between the Conservatives, the NDP and the Liberals.
A Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has found that among decided and leaning voters the Conservatives lead with 31 per cent (-4 per cent) compared to 30 per cent (+1 per cent) for the NDP and 29 per cent (+3 per cent) for the Liberals with the Green Party at 6 per cent (no change).
“The post-debate bump has settled in now and the Conservatives are down on first ballot support, the Liberals are up and the NDP is up,” says Mainstreet CEO Quito Maggi.
“Some of the regions have tightened up as well. The NDP is down in Quebec with the Liberals increasing and in Ontario it is a very tight three-way race now.”
Maggi adds whether the post-debate bump enjoyed by Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party can be maintained, only time will tell, but the race has only just begun.
“Certainly it’s good news for them in terms of first ballot support both in Quebec and Ontario,” he explains. “They just need to capitalize on it and actually move it up a few points before we see things tightening more in momentum.”
When you break down party support by province, the regional races show some big divides across Canada.
“The NDP commands a big lead in BC, leading the Liberals by 13 and the Conservatives by 15 at 38 per cent and on the other end of the country, Liberals continue to dominate Atlantic Canada by 15 points over the Conservatives and 20 points over the NDP with 43 per cent,” says Maggi.
And despite stories of voters tuning out during the dog days of summer, the survey suggests Canadians are actually quite engaged early in a very long election campaign. Over seven in 10 respondents indicated they are following the campaign, including over 40 per cent who say they are following it very closely.
“Even in the early stages, people are paying attention. I think most people really do realize how important an election it is. And reaction in voter intention numbers is pretty instantaneous to some of these major events — whenever there is a debate or policy announcement we can see and track what the response is immediately.”
Maggi says it’s nice to see Canadians are engaged and hopes it will last until Election Day on October 19th.